The times they are a-changin'

"It's all part of the global pattern some scientists have been forecasting for decades, and which many in positions of influence have chosen to ignore, scorn, or lie about. The climate is indeed changing. We will never see "normal" times again - or at least not for many centuries - and agriculture, our food supply, is in the firing line. Sometimes the weather will be too dry, sometimes too wet, and although it will generally be warmer it is likely in some places to be colder than ever remembered. The "good" and "normal" years will be the aberrations.

But never mind - shortage is good for business. Wheat prices now are 40% higher than the average of the past decade, the price of US maize last year was up by 30%, and, I suspect, we ain't seen nothing yet. This does wonders for GDP and the economic growth by which governments measure their success.

The world could feed itself - well and forever. But if we are serious about this then we have to design agriculture specifically to feed people. The principles are simple: grow crops where they grow best and fit the livestock in where we can. This way we would provide lots of plants, not much meat, and maximum variety, which is just what nutritionists recommend and is the basis of all the world's great cuisines. Sound farming and great cooking go together.

Why don't we move towards self-reliance? Because in the short term it's more profitable to import food, feed grain to livestock and churn out the biofuel. SUVs first, then beef, then human beings."

Read the full article by Colin Tudge. (thanks Rania)

Food sovereignty and health

Food sovereignty and nutrition in East and Southern Africa: a synthesis of case study evidence
Authors: M. Chopra; M. Tomlinson Produced by: EQUINET: Network for Equity in Health in Southern Africa, 2007

The paper investigates the design and implementation of three important nutrition responses in ESA: food aid; HIV/AIDS-related nutrition interventions; and school feeding programmes. The paper finds that many of the programmes in ESA have no food sovereignty component, but are instead focused narrowly on food security. Food sovereignty includes prioritising local food production, offering fair prices for farmers, protecting farmers' access to seeds, land, water and other resources; and recognising and promoting the role of women in food production. (thanks Mona)

Available online

Food colonialism

"Jimmy Davies, general manager of Hops Labour Solutions, which supplies seasonal workers to farms throughout the UK, says workers from Poland, Latvia and Lithuania are no longer interested in harvesting work. "Wages have gone through the roof in Poland so there is less need to come over here," he says. "On top of that other EU countries like Holland have opened their borders, so not only are they less interested in agricultural work full stop, the number of workers is being spread out more thinly over a wider area."

Experts say consumers are unlikely to face exorbitantly priced strawberries as a result of shortages as supermarkets dictate the price of crops, not producers. Tennis fans will still enjoy the annual Wimbledon ritual of strawberries and cream. But Mr Davies says that if the labour situation does not improve, consumers can expect a greater percentage of imported soft fruit from the US, Israel and Mexico on shelves and fewer British farmers in business."

This is a trend that is being repeated esewhere in Europe: fewer people want to work in agriculture, fewer non-Europeans allowed in, Europeans having access to jobs much less tiresome than farm labour. The lack of labour might just finish European farming off, regardless of all the subsidies thay offer. The demand from farm products from the Developing World will definitely increase, but beware of export farming: it always happens at the expense of the poor and of the land. Moreover, Developing Countriess are likely to export raw material, like strawberries, and they will probably get paid in...jelly donuts. This is colonialism all over again, but without the need to physically occupy a country and be responsible for its population. Local or regional private capital will serve as a proxy for the colonizers, and Free Trade Agreements will ensure no money goes to the State from these transactions. The result: richer individuals, but weaker states. And more poor.

What's so Arab about this trade zone?

Look at this very interesting web site called the Arab Trade Zone. It has a multitude of food commodities and products on offer, all of which originate from China. They include sesame, walnuts, millet etc.. which are local Middle eastern staples.

Just in case you were still wondering about where does the manoucheh come from. I wrote in that previous post that sesame comes from Syria. Correction: it probably comes from China.

Got milk?

"The price of milk is soaring worldwide as a drought-stricken dairy industry struggles to meet surging demand for milk products in China and the Middle East.

A doubling in the price of wholesale milk over the past year is creating havoc among food manufacturers, prompting warnings about food price inflation in the UK. Aid organisations have also raised concerns about the depletion of government stockpiles of milk powder.

Changing diets and rising living standards in Asia, notably in China and the Middle East, have caught international milk processors on the back foot. Greater wealth is leading to a change in the Asian diet, explained Carmen Suarez, chief economist at the National Farmers Union. “There is population growth and higher incomes, which leads to higher consumption of animal protein.”
So rapid has been the escalation in demand that the EU’s milk surplus has dried up and the butter mountain has been flattened. Historically, the European Commission has given European producers subsidies to sell dairy products into the world market."

There has been an increase in the number of dairy farms in Lebanon in the past few years, and the local trade in milk has been booming. Forage is also being produced locally (though at great water costs). A large number of small farmers have been investing in the ownership of a few cows (1 cow costs $2000, and provides about $100 per month). The milk is sold to small local industries that manufacture yogurt and labneh and white local cheeses. If the trends continues as above (and it is a trend we are observing with many commodities, especially grain), then farming will start to make sense again. And we should consider ourselves lucky that, against all odds and all government ultra liberal policies, farmers in lebanon have persisted in their endeavor. With increasing world prices of basic food commodities, it is the domestic food bill that increases, and the poor who suffer first.