Losers

Reuters-"Carin Smaller of the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy said these factors explained much of the hesitation around Geneva negotiating tables about a deal, especially in light of recent global economic pressures and commodity spikes.

"The Middle East and Africa are going to be the biggest losers if the Doha round is agreed. I think that is quite alarming given the impact of the food crisis on these regions," she said.

Politically powerful farmers in the United States, Europe, Japan and other rich markets may also lose income under a deal, although in theory wealthy-nation manufacturing exporters would gain better access to emerging markets in return.

The new research by Tuft University's Wise and trade experts Mamerto Perez and Sergio Schlesinger, entitled "The Promise and the Perils of Agricultural Trade Liberalisation," said that only Brazilian and Argentinian agro-exporters stand to be clear emerging-nation winners from a Doha deal on farming."